Shock arrival time prediction from CME and
flare data by using the SARM model (Núñez et al. 2016)
Online SARM predictions are available in spaceweather.uma.es/shocks.html
Duration should be in hours (e.g. 30 min = 0.5 h). This datum is calculated as the difference between
the flare start and end times, consulted in the SWPC's "edited event list"
(http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices/events.html ). Historic edited
events are located in ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/warehouse.
is calculated depending on the available data:
If radial CME speed (Vcme) is available,
Vcmex is calculated by using the following formula: Vcmex = Vcme * cos(latitude)*cos(longitude),
where latitude and longitude are the
coordinates of the location of the solar event from the
spacecraft's point of view
If cone-model speed (e.g. Xie et al. 2004) is available
Vcmex = Vc, where Vc is the cone-model-estimated CME speed
If the plane-of-sky CME speed Vpos is the only available datum, the following statistical correction should be made
Vcmex = 1.26 * Vpos.
For the case of a spacecraft near the Earth, the CME propagation
direction is given by the longitude/latitude of the associated flare (if
flare data are available) in the SWPC "edited event list". Most of
the solar associations of the recent 1-AU shocks are in the list of
Richardson & Cane (http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/level3/icmetable2.htm)
For the case of a
spacecraft at a different location, the solar event location could be
estimated taken the Earth as reference and applying the difference between
two locations: the location of the spacecraft relative to Earth, and the
location of the solar event relative to Earth.
data are not available, the latitude and longitude are obtained from
published studies that estimate these data by analyzing chronograph images or
other sources (e.g. NASA's Donki database).
(4) The target distance to calculate the arrival time should be in
the range 0.72 to 8.7 AU. The SARM model has been tested with 120 shocks
at those distances.
Contact: mnunez AT uma.es.
Nunez M., Nieves-Chinchilla T., and Pulkkinen A.,
Empirical prediction of shock arrival times from CME and flare data, Space Weather, 2016.