Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth from CME and flare data

Shock arrival times are predicted from CME and flare data using the SARM model (Núñez, Nieves-Chinchilla and Pulkkinen, 2016). It is an aerodynamic-drag-based model that has been calibrated with a dataset of shocks observed from 0.72 to 8.7 AU. Real-time and historic input data are obtained as follows:
- CME radial speed and width data are obtained from NASA's DONKI DB
- Flare peak flux and duration data are obtained from NOAA's Edited Event List
Predictions may be 'no shock' depending on the triggering criteria mentioned in the aforementioned paper, as well as new criteria that take into account the observed/predicted monthly-smoothed Sun Spot Number. In this application shock arrival predictions are triggered by CME observations at 21.5 Rs.

Notes:
- This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed during the four-day period previous to the entered date.
- Online SARM predictions are available in spaceweather.uma.es/shocks.html
- Correspondence to: M. Núñez, mnunez@uma.es

Reference: Núñez, M., T. Nieves-Chinchilla, and A. Pulkkinen (2016), Prediction of Shock Arrival Times from CME and Flare Data, Space Weather, 14, 2016.