Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-27 18:48
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-27 09:24
 - Radial speed: 418.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: N20E61
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-27 23:19
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-27 16:12
 - Radial speed: 412.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S54E18
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-28 06:29
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-28 02:12
 - Radial speed: 790.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W109
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-28 11:38
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-28 07:12
 - Radial speed: 754.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N09W124
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-30 12:07
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-30 00:36
 - Radial speed: 300.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: N44W71
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-30 12:26
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-30 08:00
 - Radial speed: 803.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N10W62
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-30 13:28
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-30 06:38
 - Radial speed: 502.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E24
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C1.5 (N05E11). Peak at 2025-05-30 05:31
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 553.27 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-06-02 06:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 71.60 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-30 13:52
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-30 06:53
 - Radial speed: 473.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: S50E11
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-30 17:07
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-30 10:23
 - Radial speed: 534.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S04W126
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-30 19:16
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-30 12:53
 - Radial speed: 506.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S26E22
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 01:13
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 00:15
 - Radial speed: 2371.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N07W05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 1117.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-06-01 10:19 (i.e. predicted transit time: 34.07 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 02:32
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 00:15
 - Radial speed: 1302.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 47 deg
 - Eruption location: N08E09
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 796.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-06-02 00:42 (i.e. predicted transit time: 48.45 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 09:33
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 03:24
 - Radial speed: 594.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N11E63
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 14:22
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 09:00
 - Radial speed: 588.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E48
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 14:50
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 04:48
 - Radial speed: 351.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: N11E59
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 15:14
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 07:12
 - Radial speed: 404.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: S25E06
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 19:29
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 14:23
 - Radial speed: 680.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W00
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C6.5 (N10E00). Peak at 2025-05-31 13:21
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 606.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-06-03 07:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.72 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-31 20:27
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-31 11:53
 - Radial speed: 408.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S16E39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-01 22:52
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-01 18:00
 - Radial speed: 609.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S26W100
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-02 14:40
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-02 07:12
 - Radial speed: 482.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N37W100
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Mon Jun 02 17:37:22 CEST 2025