Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-17 06:46
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-16 21:30
 - Radial speed: 380.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S12E110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-17 06:46
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-16 18:01
 - Radial speed: 283.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: S09E110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-17 10:18
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-17 03:36
 - Radial speed: 510.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: S11E110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-17 23:05
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-17 13:33
 - Radial speed: 353.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S05E108
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-18 08:04
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-18 05:48
 - Radial speed: 1439.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: S38E122
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-18 10:07
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-18 07:48
 - Radial speed: 1468.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 42 deg
 - Eruption location: S09E117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-18 20:10
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-18 15:06
 - Radial speed: 586.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: N09E119
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-19 23:05
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-19 13:54
 - Radial speed: 380.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: N27W153
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-21 08:53
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-21 00:12
 - Radial speed: 406.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: S12E59
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-21 11:21
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-21 01:18
 - Radial speed: 441.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: S03E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2017-10-22 10:36
 - Time at C2: 2017-10-21 20:12
 - Radial speed: 289.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: N21E91
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Sun Oct 22 21:14:51 CEST 2017