Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth
This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 18:51
- Time at C2: 2024-10-03 13:27
- Radial speed: 706.0 km/s
- Half angle: 36 deg
- Eruption location: N26E62
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 22:45
- Time at C2: 2024-10-03 13:26
- Radial speed: 371.0 km/s
- Half angle: 39 deg
- Eruption location: N39W53
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 23:43
- Time at C2: 2024-10-03 20:36
- Radial speed: 1077.0 km/s
- Half angle: 50 deg
- Eruption location: N01W41
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 729.10 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-10-06 01:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.18 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 01:59
- Time at C2: 2024-10-03 20:36
- Radial speed: 646.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: N01W51
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 04:28
- Time at C2: 2024-10-03 22:12
- Radial speed: 606.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: N50E41
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 06:47
- Time at C2: 2024-10-03 23:12
- Radial speed: 531.0 km/s
- Half angle: 14 deg
- Eruption location: N28E80
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 09:16
- Time at C2: 2024-10-04 04:13
- Radial speed: 832.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: S19W22
Inferences:
- Associated flare: M4.0 (S16W17). Peak at 2024-10-04 04:36
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 671.71 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-10-06 14:14 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.03 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 11:16
- Time at C2: 2024-10-04 05:12
- Radial speed: 564.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: S59W15
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 16:02
- Time at C2: 2024-10-04 10:00
- Radial speed: 543.0 km/s
- Half angle: 19 deg
- Eruption location: S39W22
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 16:33
- Time at C2: 2024-10-04 13:25
- Radial speed: 921.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: S33W37
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 18:18
- Time at C2: 2024-10-04 06:24
- Radial speed: 315.0 km/s
- Half angle: 11 deg
- Eruption location: N44W35
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-05 00:45
- Time at C2: 2024-10-04 20:48
- Radial speed: 827.0 km/s
- Half angle: 24 deg
- Eruption location: N41E173
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-05 12:15
- Time at C2: 2024-10-05 07:12
- Radial speed: 669.0 km/s
- Half angle: 14 deg
- Eruption location: S56W76
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 02:18
- Time at C2: 2024-10-05 19:24
- Radial speed: 540.0 km/s
- Half angle: 25 deg
- Eruption location: N42W110
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 03:33
- Time at C2: 2024-10-05 16:48
- Radial speed: 298.0 km/s
- Half angle: 27 deg
- Eruption location: S40W44
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 10:29
- Time at C2: 2024-10-06 05:48
- Radial speed: 775.0 km/s
- Half angle: 20 deg
- Eruption location: S51W105
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 10:51
- Time at C2: 2024-10-06 04:48
- Radial speed: 641.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: S62W80
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 16:18
- Time at C2: 2024-10-06 06:12
- Radial speed: 355.0 km/s
- Half angle: 30 deg
- Eruption location: S60W64
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-07 05:11
- Time at C2: 2024-10-06 06:12
- Radial speed: 281.0 km/s
- Half angle: 25 deg
- Eruption location: S39W50
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-07 10:47
- Time at C2: 2024-10-07 03:48
- Radial speed: 529.0 km/s
- Half angle: 28 deg
- Eruption location: N28W71
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-07 23:19
- Time at C2: 2024-10-07 20:12
- Radial speed: 1345.0 km/s
- Half angle: 48 deg
- Eruption location: S02W26
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 809.50 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-10-09 19:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 47.63 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 01:17
- Time at C2: 2024-10-07 20:12
- Radial speed: 757.0 km/s
- Half angle: 46 deg
- Eruption location: S32W89
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 08:37
- Time at C2: 2024-10-08 02:12
- Radial speed: 638.0 km/s
- Half angle: 31 deg
- Eruption location: N04W82
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 08:54
- Time at C2: 2024-10-08 06:12
- Radial speed: 1124.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: S50W32
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 09:14
- Time at C2: 2024-10-08 02:36
- Radial speed: 499.0 km/s
- Half angle: 22 deg
- Eruption location: S39W56
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 19:08
- Time at C2: 2024-10-08 12:12
- Radial speed: 537.0 km/s
- Half angle: 34 deg
- Eruption location: S12E129
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-09 03:31
- Time at C2: 2024-10-09 02:12
- Radial speed: 2112.0 km/s
- Half angle: 46 deg
- Eruption location: N09W19
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 1039.60 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-10-10 14:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 36.70 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-09 04:16
- Time at C2: 2024-10-09 02:12
- Radial speed: 1509.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: N13W08
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 858.70 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-10-10 22:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.78 hours)
The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Wed Oct 09 18:40:05 CEST 2024