Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-10 14:30
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 11:12
 - Radial speed: 1117.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 48 deg
 - Eruption location: N18W119
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-10 14:35
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 11:00
 - Radial speed: 983.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: N07W91
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-10 14:41
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 11:12
 - Radial speed: 1025.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: N16W91
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-10 21:08
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 18:36
 - Radial speed: 1352.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 48 deg
 - Eruption location: N03W139
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-10 21:34
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 18:36
 - Radial speed: 1142.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: N11W96
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-11 03:35
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 23:36
 - Radial speed: 914.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: S41W138
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-11 03:58
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 17:57
 - Radial speed: 360.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S37W60
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-11 13:02
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-10 23:12
 - Radial speed: 292.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: N60E34
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-11 16:29
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-11 05:24
 - Radial speed: 317.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: N56E36
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-11 19:28
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-11 10:24
 - Radial speed: 384.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S02W93
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-12 01:24
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-11 23:12
 - Radial speed: 1312.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 48 deg
 - Eruption location: N26W113
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-12 20:10
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-12 16:00
 - Radial speed: 862.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: S07W125
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-12 20:40
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-12 16:00
 - Radial speed: 798.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 53 deg
 - Eruption location: S07W122
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-13 01:39
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-12 23:48
 - Radial speed: 1357.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S06E171
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-13 06:11
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-13 04:53
 - Radial speed: 1187.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N11W138
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-13 06:41
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-13 03:38
 - Radial speed: 1037.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: N13W126
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-13 08:26
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-13 01:36
 - Radial speed: 502.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: S36W117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-13 12:18
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-13 06:36
 - Radial speed: 608.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: S11W127
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-13 18:43
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-13 15:24
 - Radial speed: 1037.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N07W148
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-14 06:24
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-13 18:36
 - Radial speed: 390.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: N10E95
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-14 06:39
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-14 01:36
 - Radial speed: 716.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S11W100
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-15 11:39
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-15 05:48
 - Radial speed: 596.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: S43W149
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-15 16:14
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-15 11:48
 - Radial speed: 812.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S66E09
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-15 17:45
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-15 07:12
 - Radial speed: 318.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S05E50
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C6.1 (S11E38). Peak at 2024-06-15 07:40
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-15 21:44
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-15 10:48
 - Radial speed: 339.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N11E76
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-06-16 00:45
 - Time at C2: 2024-06-15 15:12
 - Radial speed: 377.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N06W119
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Sun Jun 16 03:16:03 CEST 2024