Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-06 14:38
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-06 01:26
 - Radial speed: 255.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N35E55
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-06 17:34
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-06 10:36
 - Radial speed: 462.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N23E120
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-07 05:39
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-06 22:00
 - Radial speed: 416.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S37W00
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-07 05:57
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-07 01:26
 - Radial speed: 798.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: N31E112
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-07 06:01
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-07 01:26
 - Radial speed: 795.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: N31E112
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-07 13:33
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-07 03:23
 - Radial speed: 331.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S43W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-07 18:59
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-07 15:23
 - Radial speed: 955.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 53 deg
 - Eruption location: N07E121
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-07 19:15
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-07 15:23
 - Radial speed: 825.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: N26E110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-08 00:38
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-07 18:36
 - Radial speed: 568.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: N24E110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-08 06:29
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-07 23:36
 - Radial speed: 522.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: N24E116
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-08 10:25
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-08 04:49
 - Radial speed: 656.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: N24E106
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-08 11:38
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-08 02:48
 - Radial speed: 413.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: N22E111
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-09 23:44
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-09 18:24
 - Radial speed: 701.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S18W75
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-10 00:10
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-09 14:12
 - Radial speed: 338.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N36E12
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-10 15:59
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-10 13:48
 - Radial speed: 1540.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 54 deg
 - Eruption location: N24E68
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-10 16:13
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-10 13:48
 - Radial speed: 1347.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 47 deg
 - Eruption location: N40E59
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-11 05:11
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-10 21:48
 - Radial speed: 474.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N19E57
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-11 06:24
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-10 19:36
 - Radial speed: 327.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: N48E58
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-11 08:14
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-11 02:36
 - Radial speed: 519.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: N39E66
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-11 17:42
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-11 08:24
 - Radial speed: 367.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: S42E37
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-11 19:10
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-11 10:08
 - Radial speed: 347.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: N41E54
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-11 19:58
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-11 13:36
 - Radial speed: 504.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: N34E56
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Tue May 12 03:39:09 CEST 2026