Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-11-26 21:50
 - Time at C2: 2020-11-26 08:24
 - Radial speed: 298.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S11E150
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-11-27 03:43
 - Time at C2: 2020-11-26 21:24
 - Radial speed: 550.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: N06E100
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-11-27 16:18
 - Time at C2: 2020-11-27 05:48
 - Radial speed: 331.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W67
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-11-29 16:00
 - Time at C2: 2020-11-29 13:25
 - Radial speed: 1336.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 58 deg
 - Eruption location: S06E75
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-11-30 03:51
 - Time at C2: 2020-11-29 15:05
 - Radial speed: 284.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S16W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-11-30 16:07
 - Time at C2: 2020-11-30 07:09
 - Radial speed: 338.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: S24E93
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-12-01 10:59
 - Time at C2: 2020-12-01 07:12
 - Radial speed: 774.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N08E45
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 638.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2020-12-03 20:29 (i.e. predicted transit time: 61.30 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2020-12-02 00:08
 - Time at C2: 2020-12-01 05:48
 - Radial speed: 200.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S21E78
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Wed Dec 02 10:40:09 CET 2020