Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-11 14:01
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-11 09:53
 - Radial speed: 733.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S33E163
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-12 13:52
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-12 08:00
 - Radial speed: 595.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S29W66
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-12 19:12
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-12 15:36
 - Radial speed: 924.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: N27E53
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-13 07:55
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-12 15:12
 - Radial speed: 218.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: S30W95
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-13 21:52
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-13 13:25
 - Radial speed: 402.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: N76W54
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-14 04:47
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-13 18:36
 - Radial speed: 316.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: S39W95
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-14 05:50
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-13 22:12
 - Radial speed: 474.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: N14W87
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-14 07:07
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-13 19:24
 - Radial speed: 336.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N29W109
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-14 09:32
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-14 03:36
 - Radial speed: 390.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: N27W114
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 00:48
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-14 14:36
 - Radial speed: 358.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 42 deg
 - Eruption location: S29W85
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 07:49
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-14 21:24
 - Radial speed: 450.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 48 deg
 - Eruption location: S32W110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 10:20
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-14 19:38
 - Radial speed: 244.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S82W64
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 14:09
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-15 06:24
 - Radial speed: 471.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S04W107
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 15:33
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-15 07:24
 - Radial speed: 574.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: N54E47
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 16:57
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-15 08:00
 - Radial speed: 414.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: N07E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 17:12
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-15 08:48
 - Radial speed: 437.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S05W111
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-15 18:30
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-15 11:23
 - Radial speed: 468.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: N02W111
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-16 03:02
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-15 16:53
 - Radial speed: 310.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W129
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-16 09:41
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 02:00
 - Radial speed: 498.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W124
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-16 12:54
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 05:12
 - Radial speed: 470.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W118
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-16 18:28
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 10:23
 - Radial speed: 408.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W124
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 00:51
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 17:36
 - Radial speed: 498.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N25W124
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 03:55
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 19:12
 - Radial speed: 402.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S33W139
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 06:50
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 20:36
 - Radial speed: 325.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S82W175
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Thu Jul 17 09:53:35 CEST 2025