Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-16 18:28
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 10:23
 - Radial speed: 408.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W124
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 00:51
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 17:36
 - Radial speed: 498.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N25W124
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 03:55
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 19:12
 - Radial speed: 402.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S33W139
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 06:50
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-16 20:36
 - Radial speed: 325.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S82W175
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 11:59
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-17 01:15
 - Radial speed: 325.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N30W131
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 21:36
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-17 10:36
 - Radial speed: 314.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: N60W146
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-18 01:19
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-17 14:12
 - Radial speed: 338.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: N31W144
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-18 18:27
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-18 12:24
 - Radial speed: 613.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S27E71
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-19 15:09
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-19 10:24
 - Radial speed: 705.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S13W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-19 15:48
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-19 06:36
 - Radial speed: 412.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: N44E148
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-19 16:11
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-19 11:00
 - Radial speed: 610.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S09E51
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 03:32
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-19 23:53
 - Radial speed: 853.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S35E67
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 12:32
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-20 04:12
 - Radial speed: 389.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S09W83
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 12:43
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-20 07:53
 - Radial speed: 687.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: S22E41
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 612.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-07-23 00:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.13 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 19:46
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-20 17:00
 - Radial speed: 1145.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: N11E90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-21 12:52
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-21 03:38
 - Radial speed: 357.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S29E38
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-21 20:29
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-21 14:09
 - Radial speed: 625.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: N03E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-22 04:44
 - Time at C2: 2025-07-21 22:00
 - Radial speed: 582.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N28W76
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Tue Jul 22 13:13:38 CEST 2025