Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth
This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-16 18:28
- Time at C2: 2025-07-16 10:23
- Radial speed: 408.0 km/s
- Half angle: 14 deg
- Eruption location: N04W124
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 00:51
- Time at C2: 2025-07-16 17:36
- Radial speed: 498.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: N25W124
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 03:55
- Time at C2: 2025-07-16 19:12
- Radial speed: 402.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: S33W139
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 06:50
- Time at C2: 2025-07-16 20:36
- Radial speed: 325.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: S82W175
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 11:59
- Time at C2: 2025-07-17 01:15
- Radial speed: 325.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: N30W131
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-17 21:36
- Time at C2: 2025-07-17 10:36
- Radial speed: 314.0 km/s
- Half angle: 16 deg
- Eruption location: N60W146
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-18 01:19
- Time at C2: 2025-07-17 14:12
- Radial speed: 338.0 km/s
- Half angle: 21 deg
- Eruption location: N31W144
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-18 18:27
- Time at C2: 2025-07-18 12:24
- Radial speed: 613.0 km/s
- Half angle: 31 deg
- Eruption location: S27E71
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-19 15:09
- Time at C2: 2025-07-19 10:24
- Radial speed: 705.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: S13W90
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-19 15:48
- Time at C2: 2025-07-19 06:36
- Radial speed: 412.0 km/s
- Half angle: 18 deg
- Eruption location: N44E148
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-19 16:11
- Time at C2: 2025-07-19 11:00
- Radial speed: 610.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: S09E51
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 03:32
- Time at C2: 2025-07-19 23:53
- Radial speed: 853.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: S35E67
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 12:32
- Time at C2: 2025-07-20 04:12
- Radial speed: 389.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: S09W83
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 12:43
- Time at C2: 2025-07-20 07:53
- Radial speed: 687.0 km/s
- Half angle: 36 deg
- Eruption location: S22E41
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 612.10 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-07-23 00:01 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.13 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-20 19:46
- Time at C2: 2025-07-20 17:00
- Radial speed: 1145.0 km/s
- Half angle: 26 deg
- Eruption location: N11E90
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-21 12:52
- Time at C2: 2025-07-21 03:38
- Radial speed: 357.0 km/s
- Half angle: 26 deg
- Eruption location: S29E38
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-21 20:29
- Time at C2: 2025-07-21 14:09
- Radial speed: 625.0 km/s
- Half angle: 25 deg
- Eruption location: N03E70
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-07-22 04:44
- Time at C2: 2025-07-21 22:00
- Radial speed: 582.0 km/s
- Half angle: 13 deg
- Eruption location: N28W76
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Tue Jul 22 13:13:38 CEST 2025