Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-14 19:58
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-14 13:36
 - Radial speed: 565.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: N53E60
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-15 15:52
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-15 12:24
 - Radial speed: 1056.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S28W83
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 03:11
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-15 10:36
 - Radial speed: 226.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: S11W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 06:38
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 04:24
 - Radial speed: 1556.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 48 deg
 - Eruption location: N16E105
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 06:48
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 04:24
 - Radial speed: 1447.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: N13E112
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 11:16
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 03:36
 - Radial speed: 562.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: S48W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 13:15
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 05:00
 - Radial speed: 434.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E112
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 16:28
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 13:23
 - Radial speed: 1029.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S03E17
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 714.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2026-02-18 19:42 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.32 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 19:25
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 11:36
 - Radial speed: 477.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: S46W127
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-16 21:46
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 14:08
 - Radial speed: 455.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: N02E22
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-17 14:59
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-16 11:24
 - Radial speed: 257.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N72E168
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-17 19:05
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-17 11:23
 - Radial speed: 418.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S52W140
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 01:25
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-17 11:36
 - Radial speed: 279.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: S39E66
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 07:50
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 00:24
 - Radial speed: 474.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: S48E50
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 09:35
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 04:48
 - Radial speed: 725.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: S21W130
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 10:41
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 03:48
 - Radial speed: 508.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S42E49
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 13:54
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 01:25
 - Radial speed: 326.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: S54W134
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 18:53
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 11:48
 - Radial speed: 449.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S31W104
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 19:16
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 09:24
 - Radial speed: 350.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S38E85
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 21:56
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 15:00
 - Radial speed: 495.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S15W110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-18 23:52
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-18 20:36
 - Radial speed: 1033.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N03E60
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-02-19 18:19
 - Time at C2: 2026-02-19 10:36
 - Radial speed: 408.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N16W58
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Fri Feb 20 16:09:47 CET 2026