Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-05 10:10
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-05 00:12
 - Radial speed: 365.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S27W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-05 14:08
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-05 07:48
 - Radial speed: 619.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S22W95
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-05 21:38
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-05 12:24
 - Radial speed: 384.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: N23E90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-06 03:38
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-05 16:00
 - Radial speed: 314.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S27W95
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-06 04:29
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-06 00:12
 - Radial speed: 810.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N43W01
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-06 14:35
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-06 08:12
 - Radial speed: 506.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: N24W07
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-07 05:18
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-06 18:48
 - Radial speed: 460.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: N26E85
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-07 08:56
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-07 00:48
 - Radial speed: 500.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N82W180
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-07 12:34
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-07 03:36
 - Radial speed: 371.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N13E39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-07 15:11
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-07 06:24
 - Radial speed: 401.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: S17W115
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-07 15:49
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-07 13:36
 - Radial speed: 1257.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S01W170
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-07 16:42
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-07 13:36
 - Radial speed: 966.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: N16W163
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-08 04:31
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-07 21:09
 - Radial speed: 480.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 47 deg
 - Eruption location: S47W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-08 08:04
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-08 02:00
 - Radial speed: 561.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S55W100
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-08 12:43
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-08 04:17
 - Radial speed: 374.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: N71W46
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-08 13:09
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-08 02:24
 - Radial speed: 345.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: S16W109
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-08 20:51
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-08 16:24
 - Radial speed: 779.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 51 deg
 - Eruption location: N29W162
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-12-08 21:38
 - Time at C2: 2023-12-08 16:24
 - Radial speed: 650.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: N31W160
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Sat Dec 09 20:07:19 CET 2023