Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-03 21:00
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-03 15:36
 - Radial speed: 584.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S23E26
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-03 22:06
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-03 12:12
 - Radial speed: 366.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 42 deg
 - Eruption location: N16E65
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-04 11:01
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-04 05:48
 - Radial speed: 681.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: N15W116
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-04 12:26
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-03 23:12
 - Radial speed: 272.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 44 deg
 - Eruption location: N11E60
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-04 19:05
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-04 15:12
 - Radial speed: 892.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W56
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-04 20:32
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-04 18:48
 - Radial speed: 1603.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: S19W38
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 886.90 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-01-06 14:04 (i.e. predicted transit time: 43.28 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-04 20:49
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-04 18:48
 - Radial speed: 1590.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: S18W58
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-05 01:20
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-04 13:25
 - Radial speed: 299.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: N08E50
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-05 19:16
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-05 10:12
 - Radial speed: 396.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N30E39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-06 00:37
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-05 16:36
 - Radial speed: 434.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N20E39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-06 05:02
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-05 18:36
 - Radial speed: 348.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: N23E42
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-06 08:17
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-06 05:48
 - Radial speed: 1184.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N12E20
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C4.9 (N11E31). Peak at 2025-01-06 06:08
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-06 08:39
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-05 20:12
 - Radial speed: 277.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N17E48
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-07 01:48
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-06 17:24
 - Radial speed: 396.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N24E26
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-07 04:45
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-06 20:00
 - Radial speed: 436.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-07 06:44
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-06 23:00
 - Radial speed: 454.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S11W80
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-07 17:24
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-07 10:36
 - Radial speed: 470.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: S30W12
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-07 18:14
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-07 07:24
 - Radial speed: 329.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 47 deg
 - Eruption location: N70W149
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-08 02:03
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-07 23:12
 - Radial speed: 1219.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S12W99
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-08 04:01
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-07 17:48
 - Radial speed: 341.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: S46W70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-08 06:29
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-08 01:36
 - Radial speed: 650.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W112
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-08 09:41
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-08 02:12
 - Radial speed: 462.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: N50E51
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-01-08 10:49
 - Time at C2: 2025-01-08 05:36
 - Radial speed: 648.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: S12W121
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Thu Jan 09 04:49:32 GMT+01:00 2025