Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 09:06
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-13 05:12
 - Radial speed: 884.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N02E83
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M2.4 (S10E80). Peak at 2024-04-13 04:58
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 14:27
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-13 10:00
 - Radial speed: 761.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S06E85
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 18:19
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-13 12:48
 - Radial speed: 563.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S10E73
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 20:37
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-13 16:09
 - Radial speed: 797.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: S10E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 02:20
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-13 18:00
 - Radial speed: 402.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N35E20
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 07:09
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-14 02:48
 - Radial speed: 659.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: S12E99
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 10:12
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-14 04:00
 - Radial speed: 687.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: N12W65
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 10:38
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-13 21:24
 - Radial speed: 273.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: S24E75
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 14:48
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-14 11:12
 - Radial speed: 859.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: N02E20
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 663.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-04-16 21:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.78 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-15 10:52
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-15 06:48
 - Radial speed: 724.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: N06E10
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 623.20 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-04-17 21:41 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.90 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-16 07:43
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-16 03:24
 - Radial speed: 837.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S37E107
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-16 12:33
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-16 07:48
 - Radial speed: 867.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N35E95
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 07:52
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-16 21:12
 - Radial speed: 307.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: S45W05
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 08:22
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-17 02:48
 - Radial speed: 567.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: N40W56
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 09:30
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-17 02:00
 - Radial speed: 458.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: N36E90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 10:20
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-17 02:36
 - Radial speed: 505.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N46W17
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 05:27
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-17 21:12
 - Radial speed: 378.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: S20E21
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.6 (S07E22). Peak at 2024-04-17 21:55
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 11:19
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-18 03:12
 - Radial speed: 406.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: S38E15
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 12:30
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-18 02:48
 - Radial speed: 349.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N14E25
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 14:31
 - Time at C2: 2024-04-18 06:48
 - Radial speed: 438.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: S36E16
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Fri Apr 19 01:04:21 CEST 2024