Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-09 14:54
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-09 06:09
 - Radial speed: 388.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: S05E42
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-10 01:47
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-09 17:09
 - Radial speed: 377.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: S07E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-10 02:28
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-09 14:36
 - Radial speed: 298.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S20E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-10 09:54
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-10 06:09
 - Radial speed: 763.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: S02W85
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-10 13:40
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-10 06:24
 - Radial speed: 460.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S13W83
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-11 10:30
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-11 01:00
 - Radial speed: 309.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S38W65
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-12 16:31
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-12 06:24
 - Radial speed: 318.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S61E53
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-12 19:41
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-12 09:12
 - Radial speed: 338.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S07E41
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-12 22:52
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-12 17:23
 - Radial speed: 650.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S03W138
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-13 07:16
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-13 04:00
 - Radial speed: 1065.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S20W63
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-13 18:52
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-13 14:00
 - Radial speed: 670.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S26W80
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-13 23:31
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-13 18:24
 - Radial speed: 630.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: S09W152
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-14 06:19
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-13 23:00
 - Radial speed: 470.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N31E116
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-14 15:45
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-14 03:00
 - Radial speed: 262.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: S31W143
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-14 17:06
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-14 08:24
 - Radial speed: 372.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S40W29
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-14 20:45
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-14 02:36
 - Radial speed: 199.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: N16E87
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-04-15 01:40
 - Time at C2: 2026-04-14 19:12
 - Radial speed: 580.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N19E51
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Wed Apr 15 12:33:46 CEST 2026