Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-28 06:50
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-27 23:48
 - Radial speed: 496.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S16E70
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C5.3 (S19E68). Peak at 2023-09-28 00:10
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-28 07:41
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-28 00:24
 - Radial speed: 507.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S17E70
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C5.3 (S19E68). Peak at 2023-09-28 00:10
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-28 12:49
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-28 04:26
 - Radial speed: 421.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S23E68
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-28 15:03
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-28 06:32
 - Radial speed: 423.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: S25E68
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-28 18:05
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-28 09:27
 - Radial speed: 412.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: S32E73
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.2 (S18E65). Peak at 2023-09-28 08:58
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-30 12:05
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-30 04:30
 - Radial speed: 455.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S29E30
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-09-30 16:41
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-30 04:44
 - Radial speed: 297.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: N13E73
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-01 01:51
 - Time at C2: 2023-09-30 16:52
 - Radial speed: 373.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N14E65
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-03 01:32
 - Time at C2: 2023-10-02 18:24
 - Radial speed: 467.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N00E20
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 546.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-10-05 19:02 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.63 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-03 18:12
 - Time at C2: 2023-10-03 12:48
 - Radial speed: 632.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 42 deg
 - Eruption location: N09E130
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-10-03 19:19
 - Time at C2: 2023-10-03 09:12
 - Radial speed: 374.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: N25W114
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Tue Oct 03 23:26:38 CEST 2023