Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-29 10:55
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-29 06:12
 - Radial speed: 729.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S22W76
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-29 23:57
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-29 13:30
 - Radial speed: 404.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S66W26
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-30 00:13
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-29 11:36
 - Radial speed: 372.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: N66W180
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-30 00:24
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-29 19:12
 - Radial speed: 704.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S13E87
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-30 11:30
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-30 06:00
 - Radial speed: 631.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S71W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-11-30 15:54
 - Time at C2: 2024-11-30 11:12
 - Radial speed: 749.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S14E85
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-01 10:35
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-01 03:48
 - Radial speed: 467.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S02W61
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-01 18:22
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-01 09:12
 - Radial speed: 426.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: S71W175
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-02 06:56
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-01 22:00
 - Radial speed: 393.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S18E99
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-02 18:22
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-02 07:12
 - Radial speed: 311.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: S19E102
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-02 22:56
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-02 16:36
 - Radial speed: 572.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: S22E90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-03 09:59
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-03 01:24
 - Radial speed: 400.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: S19W110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-04 00:29
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-03 20:48
 - Radial speed: 998.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N17W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-04 10:06
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-03 20:36
 - Radial speed: 267.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: N38W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Wed Dec 04 20:09:22 GMT+01:00 2024