Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 18:51
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 13:27
 - Radial speed: 706.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: N26E62
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 22:45
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 13:26
 - Radial speed: 371.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N39W53
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-03 23:43
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 20:36
 - Radial speed: 1077.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 50 deg
 - Eruption location: N01W41
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 729.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-06 01:46 (i.e. predicted transit time: 53.18 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 01:59
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 20:36
 - Radial speed: 646.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N01W51
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 04:28
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 22:12
 - Radial speed: 606.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N50E41
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 06:47
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-03 23:12
 - Radial speed: 531.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N28E80
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 09:16
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-04 04:13
 - Radial speed: 832.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S19W22
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M4.0 (S16W17). Peak at 2024-10-04 04:36
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 671.71 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-06 14:14 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.03 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 11:16
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-04 05:12
 - Radial speed: 564.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: S59W15
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 16:02
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-04 10:00
 - Radial speed: 543.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S39W22
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 16:33
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-04 13:25
 - Radial speed: 921.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S33W37
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-04 18:18
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-04 06:24
 - Radial speed: 315.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: N44W35
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-05 00:45
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-04 20:48
 - Radial speed: 827.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N41E173
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-05 12:15
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-05 07:12
 - Radial speed: 669.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S56W76
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 02:18
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-05 19:24
 - Radial speed: 540.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: N42W110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 03:33
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-05 16:48
 - Radial speed: 298.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: S40W44
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 10:29
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-06 05:48
 - Radial speed: 775.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: S51W105
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 10:51
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-06 04:48
 - Radial speed: 641.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S62W80
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-06 16:18
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-06 06:12
 - Radial speed: 355.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: S60W64
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-07 05:11
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-06 06:12
 - Radial speed: 281.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S39W50
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-07 10:47
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-07 03:48
 - Radial speed: 529.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N28W71
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-07 23:19
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-07 20:12
 - Radial speed: 1345.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 48 deg
 - Eruption location: S02W26
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 809.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-09 19:49 (i.e. predicted transit time: 47.63 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 01:17
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-07 20:12
 - Radial speed: 757.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: S32W89
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 08:37
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-08 02:12
 - Radial speed: 638.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W82
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 08:54
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-08 06:12
 - Radial speed: 1124.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S50W32
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 09:14
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-08 02:36
 - Radial speed: 499.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: S39W56
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-08 19:08
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-08 12:12
 - Radial speed: 537.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: S12E129
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-09 03:31
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-09 02:12
 - Radial speed: 2112.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: N09W19
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 1039.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-10 14:54 (i.e. predicted transit time: 36.70 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-10-09 04:16
 - Time at C2: 2024-10-09 02:12
 - Radial speed: 1509.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N13W08
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 858.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-10-10 22:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 44.78 hours)


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Wed Oct 09 18:40:05 CEST 2024