Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-10 02:07
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-09 15:36
 - Radial speed: 317.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S59E02
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-10 05:27
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-10 02:24
 - Radial speed: 1118.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S22E68
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-10 23:30
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-10 20:36
 - Radial speed: 1045.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S32W07
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-11 00:29
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-10 20:48
 - Radial speed: 809.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: S29W03
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-11 09:32
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-11 05:12
 - Radial speed: 775.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: N24E97
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-11 15:32
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-10 16:12
 - Radial speed: 221.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S40W122
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-12 00:39
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-11 22:45
 - Radial speed: 1608.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 50 deg
 - Eruption location: S07E151
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-12 01:07
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-11 22:45
 - Radial speed: 1353.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 36 deg
 - Eruption location: S05E115
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-12 04:11
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-11 21:30
 - Radial speed: 440.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: S09E50
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-12 05:33
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-12 01:45
 - Radial speed: 804.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N15E115
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-12 06:13
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-12 03:00
 - Radial speed: 916.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N03E115
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-12 16:32
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-12 07:38
 - Radial speed: 387.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N48E123
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-13 20:38
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-13 06:24
 - Radial speed: 267.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: S59W01
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-14 04:07
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-13 21:00
 - Radial speed: 521.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N60W176
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-14 06:31
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-13 21:00
 - Radial speed: 389.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: N60W176
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-14 10:03
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-14 02:24
 - Radial speed: 439.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: N75E151
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-14 12:36
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-14 08:24
 - Radial speed: 768.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N34E11
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-14 18:35
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-14 14:00
 - Radial speed: 662.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N20E40
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-15 05:32
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-15 00:36
 - Radial speed: 561.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N27W12
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-15 08:23
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-15 02:12
 - Radial speed: 589.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 43 deg
 - Eruption location: N38W170
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-15 10:40
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-15 07:12
 - Radial speed: 998.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N39E120
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-15 10:43
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-15 07:12
 - Radial speed: 996.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 42 deg
 - Eruption location: N41E121
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-01-15 18:52
 - Time at C2: 2026-01-14 17:12
 - Radial speed: 227.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S54W39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Thu Jan 15 20:51:20 CET 2026