Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-15 17:13
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-15 11:01
 - Radial speed: 475.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: S30W151
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-15 20:50
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-15 14:24
 - Radial speed: 564.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N17E75
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 01:04
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-15 13:48
 - Radial speed: 317.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: N13W76
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 02:55
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-15 16:48
 - Radial speed: 347.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N17W76
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 12:00
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-16 05:00
 - Radial speed: 503.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: N44W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 12:07
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-16 03:00
 - Radial speed: 375.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: S28E166
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 12:58
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-16 01:48
 - Radial speed: 306.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: S23E165
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 14:28
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-16 08:09
 - Radial speed: 548.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 40 deg
 - Eruption location: N02W175
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 19:27
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-16 16:36
 - Radial speed: 1201.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: N37W09
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-16 20:48
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-16 13:23
 - Radial speed: 426.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 32 deg
 - Eruption location: S06E170
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-17 03:40
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-16 20:30
 - Radial speed: 450.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: N40W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-17 17:21
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-17 10:24
 - Radial speed: 508.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N37E40
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-17 18:56
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-17 04:24
 - Radial speed: 250.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N09W97
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-18 02:16
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-17 16:08
 - Radial speed: 299.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S42E141
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-18 13:52
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-18 06:23
 - Radial speed: 456.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N45E24
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-18 15:38
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-18 06:38
 - Radial speed: 390.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 24 deg
 - Eruption location: N19W129
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-19 01:18
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-18 16:12
 - Radial speed: 375.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N04W129
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-19 16:58
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-19 11:01
 - Radial speed: 564.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: N32E26
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-20 09:43
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-20 05:12
 - Radial speed: 754.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: S31E173
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-20 15:34
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-20 09:24
 - Radial speed: 522.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: N46W02
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-20 21:58
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-20 17:15
 - Radial speed: 661.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: N16W53
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-05-20 22:54
 - Time at C2: 2026-05-20 19:00
 - Radial speed: 639.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: S41W160
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Thu May 21 17:09:12 CEST 2026