Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-09 15:54
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-09 11:23
 - Radial speed: 717.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: S04E10
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 621.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-12 02:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.12 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-09 20:42
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-09 15:23
 - Radial speed: 580.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N12E60
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C2.0 (N16E57). Peak at 2021-05-09 14:20
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-11 08:08
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-10 21:12
 - Radial speed: 336.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E48
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-14 02:43
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-13 19:09
 - Radial speed: 475.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: N10E08
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 548.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-05-16 19:25 (i.e. predicted transit time: 72.28 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-05-14 14:58
 - Time at C2: 2021-05-14 05:23
 - Radial speed: 294.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S04W00
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Sat May 15 04:13:03 CEST 2021