Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth
This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-21 10:41
- Time at C2: 2024-07-21 04:24
- Radial speed: 598.0 km/s
- Half angle: 26 deg
- Eruption location: N15W75
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-21 16:36
- Time at C2: 2024-07-21 11:00
- Radial speed: 592.0 km/s
- Half angle: 22 deg
- Eruption location: N09W76
Inferences:
- Associated flare: C4.1 (N14W74). Peak at 2024-07-21 10:09
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-21 19:30
- Time at C2: 2024-07-21 16:48
- Radial speed: 1224.0 km/s
- Half angle: 43 deg
- Eruption location: N08E05
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 773.20 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-07-23 18:47 (i.e. predicted transit time: 49.98 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-21 19:47
- Time at C2: 2024-07-21 12:12
- Radial speed: 469.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: N18W88
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-21 21:39
- Time at C2: 2024-07-21 16:48
- Radial speed: 719.0 km/s
- Half angle: 46 deg
- Eruption location: N42E20
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 621.70 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-07-24 07:50 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.05 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-23 02:24
- Time at C2: 2024-07-23 00:23
- Radial speed: 1544.0 km/s
- Half angle: 47 deg
- Eruption location: N04W176
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-23 02:45
- Time at C2: 2024-07-23 00:23
- Radial speed: 1299.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: N01W172
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-23 03:21
- Time at C2: 2024-07-22 18:48
- Radial speed: 442.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: S30E99
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-23 12:40
- Time at C2: 2024-07-23 04:24
- Radial speed: 441.0 km/s
- Half angle: 41 deg
- Eruption location: S17W47
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-23 17:57
- Time at C2: 2024-07-23 14:48
- Radial speed: 950.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: S07E37
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 691.00 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-07-25 23:05 (i.e. predicted transit time: 56.30 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-23 18:34
- Time at C2: 2024-07-23 14:48
- Radial speed: 833.0 km/s
- Half angle: 36 deg
- Eruption location: N01E77
Inferences:
- Associated flare: M2.4 (S10E77). Peak at 2024-07-23 13:49
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-24 12:42
- Time at C2: 2024-07-24 08:23
- Radial speed: 701.0 km/s
- Half angle: 30 deg
- Eruption location: N12W60
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-24 14:17
- Time at C2: 2024-07-24 08:23
- Radial speed: 552.0 km/s
- Half angle: 28 deg
- Eruption location: N08W60
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-24 20:27
- Time at C2: 2024-07-24 07:09
- Radial speed: 254.0 km/s
- Half angle: 28 deg
- Eruption location: N30E80
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-24 22:26
- Time at C2: 2024-07-24 17:36
- Radial speed: 693.0 km/s
- Half angle: 25 deg
- Eruption location: N08W70
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-24 23:35
- Time at C2: 2024-07-24 18:36
- Radial speed: 696.0 km/s
- Half angle: 33 deg
- Eruption location: S05W75
Inferences:
- Associated flare: C6.8 (S08W72). Peak at 2024-07-24 17:59
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-25 03:50
- Time at C2: 2024-07-25 00:24
- Radial speed: 933.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: N04E172
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-25 08:36
- Time at C2: 2024-07-24 22:24
- Radial speed: 335.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: S09E87
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-25 08:52
- Time at C2: 2024-07-25 02:48
- Radial speed: 568.0 km/s
- Half angle: 18 deg
- Eruption location: N09E61
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-25 12:03
- Time at C2: 2024-07-25 04:36
- Radial speed: 407.0 km/s
- Half angle: 20 deg
- Eruption location: S28W155
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-25 20:00
- Time at C2: 2024-07-25 11:12
- Radial speed: 355.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: S30W156
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-25 23:56
- Time at C2: 2024-07-25 16:00
- Radial speed: 456.0 km/s
- Half angle: 27 deg
- Eruption location: N02W85
Inferences:
- Associated flare: M1.3 (S09W81). Peak at 2024-07-25 15:27
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-26 06:44
- Time at C2: 2024-07-26 02:00
- Radial speed: 621.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: N28W40
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-26 07:26
- Time at C2: 2024-07-25 21:12
- Radial speed: 337.0 km/s
- Half angle: 19 deg
- Eruption location: S04W99
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-26 11:18
- Time at C2: 2024-07-26 03:12
- Radial speed: 401.0 km/s
- Half angle: 20 deg
- Eruption location: S05W82
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-26 17:56
- Time at C2: 2024-07-26 09:48
- Radial speed: 445.0 km/s
- Half angle: 18 deg
- Eruption location: S02W99
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-27 00:52
- Time at C2: 2024-07-26 21:24
- Radial speed: 646.0 km/s
- Half angle: 20 deg
- Eruption location: S05E01
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-27 01:21
- Time at C2: 2024-07-26 15:23
- Radial speed: 328.0 km/s
- Half angle: 38 deg
- Eruption location: N00E37
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-07-27 01:23
- Time at C2: 2024-07-26 20:48
- Radial speed: 676.0 km/s
- Half angle: 42 deg
- Eruption location: S15E05
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 608.80 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-07-29 13:18 (i.e. predicted transit time: 64.50 hours)
The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Sat Jul 27 06:04:00 CEST 2024