Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-07 10:42
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-07 01:36
 - Radial speed: 409.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: S09W92
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-07 15:46
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-07 04:24
 - Radial speed: 312.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N59E78
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-07 15:49
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-07 07:12
 - Radial speed: 364.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N29W60
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-07 16:28
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-07 07:36
 - Radial speed: 406.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: N57E78
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-07 17:23
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-07 09:48
 - Radial speed: 437.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S14W66
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-07 17:35
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-07 04:12
 - Radial speed: 279.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: N01W60
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-08 07:40
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-07 20:36
 - Radial speed: 329.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: S37W120
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-08 13:56
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-08 05:36
 - Radial speed: 394.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 12 deg
 - Eruption location: S29E44
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-08 14:12
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-08 09:24
 - Radial speed: 677.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 41 deg
 - Eruption location: S01W51
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: X2.2 (S08W54). Peak at 2024-12-08 08:50
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-09 19:30
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-09 06:36
 - Radial speed: 250.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S33E32
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 05:36
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-09 19:12
 - Radial speed: 335.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: S31W131
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 08:52
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 03:23
 - Radial speed: 606.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: S51E54
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 10:17
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 07:00
 - Radial speed: 1005.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S53E73
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 10:38
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 00:24
 - Radial speed: 331.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S59E58
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 11:08
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 07:24
 - Radial speed: 905.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: S63E73
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 14:51
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 11:12
 - Radial speed: 949.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: S57E59
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 22:40
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 16:55
 - Radial speed: 579.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N42E24
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 23:28
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 11:48
 - Radial speed: 324.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: N60E36
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-10 23:55
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 17:48
 - Radial speed: 560.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: N45E28
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 00:00
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 18:12
 - Radial speed: 630.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: S69E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 00:55
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 09:53
 - Radial speed: 222.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: N37E36
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 02:26
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 21:36
 - Radial speed: 670.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: N37E21
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 05:30
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 15:24
 - Radial speed: 251.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N57E27
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 08:55
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 02:23
 - Radial speed: 531.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N41E23
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 10:23
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 06:24
 - Radial speed: 870.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: S49E57
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 15:48
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-10 18:12
 - Radial speed: 599.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N41E18
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 15:48
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 05:24
 - Radial speed: 355.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S43W178
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 15:48
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 10:38
 - Radial speed: 656.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N41E18
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 17:01
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 12:12
 - Radial speed: 667.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: S13E172
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-11 20:15
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 08:00
 - Radial speed: 285.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N54E34
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-12 00:02
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 21:24
 - Radial speed: 1167.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 44 deg
 - Eruption location: S03E178
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-12 02:20
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-11 21:24
 - Radial speed: 689.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S26E168
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-12 12:15
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-12 02:24
 - Radial speed: 372.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: N61E138
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-12-12 20:22
 - Time at C2: 2024-12-12 10:00
 - Radial speed: 348.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: S46W39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Fri Dec 13 00:40:41 GMT+01:00 2024