Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-17 16:24
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-17 07:15
 - Radial speed: 358.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: N49E133
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-17 21:08
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-17 13:45
 - Radial speed: 414.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: N63W160
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-17 22:35
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-17 18:15
 - Radial speed: 743.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: N53E148
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-18 10:55
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-18 02:12
 - Radial speed: 443.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 46 deg
 - Eruption location: N53E139
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-18 17:41
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-18 11:24
 - Radial speed: 575.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: N70E169
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-18 18:06
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-18 11:12
 - Radial speed: 507.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: N45E119
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-18 21:11
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-18 03:36
 - Radial speed: 245.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: S37W138
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-18 22:06
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-18 11:00
 - Radial speed: 323.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S44W135
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-19 05:48
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-19 01:25
 - Radial speed: 833.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: S08W126
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-20 21:37
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-20 08:38
 - Radial speed: 271.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: N09E67
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-22 18:33
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-22 10:36
 - Radial speed: 408.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 29 deg
 - Eruption location: N02E37
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-12-23 12:17
 - Time at C2: 2025-12-23 00:22
 - Radial speed: 325.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N65E117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Tue Dec 23 15:29:22 CET 2025