Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-24 22:56
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-24 18:36
 - Radial speed: 840.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W111
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-25 02:22
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-24 22:08
 - Radial speed: 717.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S09W112
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-25 04:05
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-24 23:48
 - Radial speed: 774.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S12W110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-25 07:57
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-25 04:24
 - Radial speed: 915.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N39W148
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-25 09:46
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-25 06:36
 - Radial speed: 1090.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S14W110
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-25 11:40
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-25 04:36
 - Radial speed: 479.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: S09E97
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-25 20:15
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-25 14:23
 - Radial speed: 525.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 15 deg
 - Eruption location: N46W87
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-26 03:20
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-25 21:12
 - Radial speed: 501.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: S32E09
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-26 04:50
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-25 19:45
 - Radial speed: 447.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: N30W75
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-26 17:13
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-26 01:48
 - Radial speed: 277.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N37W68
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-26 17:16
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-26 13:38
 - Radial speed: 940.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-26 17:18
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-26 09:48
 - Radial speed: 454.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 42 deg
 - Eruption location: N41W76
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-26 22:02
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-26 17:53
 - Radial speed: 772.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: S10W127
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-27 15:26
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-27 12:12
 - Radial speed: 1000.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 28 deg
 - Eruption location: N43W59
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-27 21:51
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-27 11:00
 - Radial speed: 307.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S25W07
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-28 16:05
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-28 06:36
 - Radial speed: 361.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N23E49
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-29 01:56
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-28 18:24
 - Radial speed: 437.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: S45W17
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-29 02:07
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-28 21:00
 - Radial speed: 589.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: N05W09
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 582.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-07-01 16:39 (i.e. predicted transit time: 67.65 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-29 04:14
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-28 20:24
 - Radial speed: 433.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 31 deg
 - Eruption location: S39W40
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-29 18:26
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-29 12:12
 - Radial speed: 511.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N10E41
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-29 21:19
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-29 11:36
 - Radial speed: 358.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: N40W129
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-30 01:01
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-29 15:36
 - Radial speed: 504.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 35 deg
 - Eruption location: S03W141
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-30 01:12
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-29 19:00
 - Radial speed: 562.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: N61W117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-30 06:01
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-29 17:24
 - Radial speed: 331.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S03W117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-30 06:01
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-29 17:24
 - Radial speed: 331.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: S03W117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-06-30 10:27
 - Time at C2: 2025-06-29 18:36
 - Radial speed: 266.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N54W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Mon Jun 30 20:00:25 CEST 2025