Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-04-30 01:03
 - Time at C2: 2025-04-29 13:24
 - Radial speed: 303.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N58E74
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-04-30 01:27
 - Time at C2: 2025-04-29 23:36
 - Radial speed: 1877.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 38 deg
 - Eruption location: S24W124
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-04-30 01:37
 - Time at C2: 2025-04-29 23:36
 - Radial speed: 1715.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 23 deg
 - Eruption location: S40W91
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-04-30 02:41
 - Time at C2: 2025-04-29 17:53
 - Radial speed: 391.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N06W136
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-01 15:15
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-01 09:38
 - Radial speed: 622.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: S39W117
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-02 02:07
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-01 18:12
 - Radial speed: 460.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E99
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-02 12:06
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-02 02:24
 - Radial speed: 366.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: N01E93
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-02 15:18
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-02 09:12
 - Radial speed: 633.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: S33E66
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-03 21:44
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-03 11:53
 - Radial speed: 322.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: N04E75
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-04 05:19
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-03 16:19
 - Radial speed: 260.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 22 deg
 - Eruption location: S26E105
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-04 07:21
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-03 17:48
 - Radial speed: 269.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S19W90
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-04 14:54
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-04 04:12
 - Radial speed: 330.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N06E61
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-04 16:19
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-04 10:48
 - Radial speed: 648.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S57W141
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-04 18:56
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-04 15:23
 - Radial speed: 982.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: S08W115
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-04 19:17
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-04 08:00
 - Radial speed: 315.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S05E63
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-05 03:33
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-04 12:24
 - Radial speed: 236.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 27 deg
 - Eruption location: S20E70
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-05 04:55
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-04 21:00
 - Radial speed: 438.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 13 deg
 - Eruption location: S03W108
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-05 11:28
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-05 00:36
 - Radial speed: 339.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: S13W102
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-05 11:37
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-05 09:12
 - Radial speed: 1176.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 14 deg
 - Eruption location: S16E29
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-05 16:12
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-05 11:00
 - Radial speed: 712.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 11 deg
 - Eruption location: N05E80
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-05-05 18:58
 - Time at C2: 2025-05-05 15:00
 - Radial speed: 824.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 25 deg
 - Eruption location: N37E119
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Mon May 05 19:59:18 CEST 2025