Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth

This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-08-31 12:12
 - Time at C2: 2025-08-31 04:08
 - Radial speed: 427.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 10 deg
 - Eruption location: N11E44
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-01 00:40
 - Time at C2: 2025-08-31 12:48
 - Radial speed: 292.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 18 deg
 - Eruption location: S76E31
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-02 20:37
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-02 14:09
 - Radial speed: 511.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N75E43
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-03 12:15
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-03 05:38
 - Radial speed: 434.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N27W57
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 03:30
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-03 07:48
 - Radial speed: 217.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: N76E43
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 11:17
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 06:08
 - Radial speed: 619.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 17 deg
 - Eruption location: N69W39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 20:35
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 14:23
 - Radial speed: 520.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: N71W39
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 22:02
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 20:30
 - Radial speed: 1379.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 37 deg
 - Eruption location: S09E14
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 819.70 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-09-06 19:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 47.02 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 23:04
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 20:30
 - Radial speed: 1021.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 41 deg
 - Eruption location: N02E19
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 712.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2025-09-07 03:00 (i.e. predicted transit time: 54.52 hours)

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 23:33
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 18:30
 - Radial speed: 594.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 26 deg
 - Eruption location: S47W40
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-04 23:57
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 13:09
 - Radial speed: 300.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 16 deg
 - Eruption location: N73W31
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-05 05:03
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-04 22:00
 - Radial speed: 500.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 21 deg
 - Eruption location: N09W98
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-05 07:45
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-05 01:36
 - Radial speed: 540.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 20 deg
 - Eruption location: N69W46
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-09-05 14:38
 - Time at C2: 2025-09-05 06:48
 - Radial speed: 456.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 19 deg
 - Eruption location: N59E20
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - No shock


The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Sat Sep 06 01:00:32 CEST 2025