Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth
This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-07 12:25
- Time at C2: 2025-11-07 07:23
- Radial speed: 636.0 km/s
- Half angle: 53 deg
- Eruption location: N09W02
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 596.80 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-10 01:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 65.90 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-07 12:50
- Time at C2: 2025-11-07 07:23
- Radial speed: 617.0 km/s
- Half angle: 31 deg
- Eruption location: N19E27
Inferences:
- Associated flare: M1.7 (N23E28). Peak at 2025-11-07 06:31
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 621.01 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-09 22:30 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.13 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-07 20:31
- Time at C2: 2025-11-07 12:48
- Radial speed: 464.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: N66W05
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-08 03:42
- Time at C2: 2025-11-07 12:53
- Radial speed: 261.0 km/s
- Half angle: 36 deg
- Eruption location: N39E34
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-09 12:12
- Time at C2: 2025-11-09 07:24
- Radial speed: 734.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: N18W02
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 626.20 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-11 21:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.57 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-09 20:10
- Time at C2: 2025-11-09 12:48
- Radial speed: 470.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: S58E12
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-09 20:32
- Time at C2: 2025-11-09 13:48
- Radial speed: 610.0 km/s
- Half angle: 19 deg
- Eruption location: S09W98
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-09 23:56
- Time at C2: 2025-11-09 21:12
- Radial speed: 975.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: S04E156
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 02:23
- Time at C2: 2025-11-09 13:25
- Radial speed: 290.0 km/s
- Half angle: 32 deg
- Eruption location: N47W07
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 10:20
- Time at C2: 2025-11-09 23:00
- Radial speed: 291.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: S37W53
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 10:49
- Time at C2: 2025-11-10 00:48
- Radial speed: 560.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: N10W105
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 11:42
- Time at C2: 2025-11-10 09:36
- Radial speed: 1298.0 km/s
- Half angle: 33 deg
- Eruption location: N08W19
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 795.40 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-12 10:06 (i.e. predicted transit time: 48.52 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 12:24
- Time at C2: 2025-11-10 09:36
- Radial speed: 1196.0 km/s
- Half angle: 56 deg
- Eruption location: N08W11
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 764.80 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-12 12:10 (i.e. predicted transit time: 50.57 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 14:39
- Time at C2: 2025-11-10 04:48
- Radial speed: 365.0 km/s
- Half angle: 16 deg
- Eruption location: N09W114
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-10 18:35
- Time at C2: 2025-11-10 13:08
- Radial speed: 630.0 km/s
- Half angle: 27 deg
- Eruption location: N23W00
Inferences:
- Associated flare: C6.0 (N23W18). Peak at 2025-11-10 14:07
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 445.40 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-13 10:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.10 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-11 11:54
- Time at C2: 2025-11-11 10:23
- Radial speed: 1856.0 km/s
- Half angle: 45 deg
- Eruption location: N24W22
Inferences:
- Associated flare: X5.1 (N23W24). Peak at 2025-11-11 09:49
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 914.12 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-13 04:20 (i.e. predicted transit time: 41.95 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-11 12:08
- Time at C2: 2025-11-11 10:23
- Radial speed: 1715.0 km/s
- Half angle: 58 deg
- Eruption location: N13W13
Inferences:
- Associated flare: X5.1 (N23W24). Peak at 2025-11-11 09:49
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 896.33 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2025-11-13 05:12 (i.e. predicted transit time: 42.82 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-11 20:06
- Time at C2: 2025-11-11 15:30
- Radial speed: 584.0 km/s
- Half angle: 19 deg
- Eruption location: N55W22
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-12 01:57
- Time at C2: 2025-11-11 17:00
- Radial speed: 362.0 km/s
- Half angle: 22 deg
- Eruption location: N05W70
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2025-11-12 23:51
- Time at C2: 2025-11-12 17:45
- Radial speed: 529.0 km/s
- Half angle: 15 deg
- Eruption location: N48W53
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Thu Nov 13 07:12:54 CET 2025