Predictions of shock arrival times at the Earth
This page shows the predictions triggered by the CMEs observed at 21.5 Rs. CME data was retrieved from the NASA's DONKI system during the last fours days.
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 09:06
- Time at C2: 2024-04-13 05:12
- Radial speed: 884.0 km/s
- Half angle: 13 deg
- Eruption location: N02E83
Inferences:
- Associated flare: M2.4 (S10E80). Peak at 2024-04-13 04:58
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 14:27
- Time at C2: 2024-04-13 10:00
- Radial speed: 761.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: S06E85
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 18:19
- Time at C2: 2024-04-13 12:48
- Radial speed: 563.0 km/s
- Half angle: 10 deg
- Eruption location: S10E73
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-13 20:37
- Time at C2: 2024-04-13 16:09
- Radial speed: 797.0 km/s
- Half angle: 12 deg
- Eruption location: S10E70
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 02:20
- Time at C2: 2024-04-13 18:00
- Radial speed: 402.0 km/s
- Half angle: 23 deg
- Eruption location: N35E20
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 07:09
- Time at C2: 2024-04-14 02:48
- Radial speed: 659.0 km/s
- Half angle: 32 deg
- Eruption location: S12E99
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 10:12
- Time at C2: 2024-04-14 04:00
- Radial speed: 687.0 km/s
- Half angle: 38 deg
- Eruption location: N12W65
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 10:38
- Time at C2: 2024-04-13 21:24
- Radial speed: 273.0 km/s
- Half angle: 37 deg
- Eruption location: S24E75
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-14 14:48
- Time at C2: 2024-04-14 11:12
- Radial speed: 859.0 km/s
- Half angle: 34 deg
- Eruption location: N02E20
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 663.70 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-04-16 21:58 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.78 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-15 10:52
- Time at C2: 2024-04-15 06:48
- Radial speed: 724.0 km/s
- Half angle: 36 deg
- Eruption location: N06E10
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- In-situ shock speed: 623.20 km/s
- Shock arrival time: 2024-04-17 21:41 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.90 hours)
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-16 07:43
- Time at C2: 2024-04-16 03:24
- Radial speed: 837.0 km/s
- Half angle: 13 deg
- Eruption location: S37E107
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-16 12:33
- Time at C2: 2024-04-16 07:48
- Radial speed: 867.0 km/s
- Half angle: 35 deg
- Eruption location: N35E95
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 07:52
- Time at C2: 2024-04-16 21:12
- Radial speed: 307.0 km/s
- Half angle: 20 deg
- Eruption location: S45W05
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 08:22
- Time at C2: 2024-04-17 02:48
- Radial speed: 567.0 km/s
- Half angle: 31 deg
- Eruption location: N40W56
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 09:30
- Time at C2: 2024-04-17 02:00
- Radial speed: 458.0 km/s
- Half angle: 22 deg
- Eruption location: N36E90
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-17 10:20
- Time at C2: 2024-04-17 02:36
- Radial speed: 505.0 km/s
- Half angle: 29 deg
- Eruption location: N46W17
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 05:27
- Time at C2: 2024-04-17 21:12
- Radial speed: 378.0 km/s
- Half angle: 28 deg
- Eruption location: S20E21
Inferences:
- Associated flare: M1.6 (S07E22). Peak at 2024-04-17 21:55
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 11:19
- Time at C2: 2024-04-18 03:12
- Radial speed: 406.0 km/s
- Half angle: 12 deg
- Eruption location: S38E15
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 12:30
- Time at C2: 2024-04-18 02:48
- Radial speed: 349.0 km/s
- Half angle: 39 deg
- Eruption location: N14E25
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-04-18 14:31
- Time at C2: 2024-04-18 06:48
- Radial speed: 438.0 km/s
- Half angle: 18 deg
- Eruption location: S36E16
Inferences:
- No flare association was found
Predictions for Earth:
- No shock
The model used for predicting the interplanetary shock propagation was SARM (Núñez et al., Space Weather, 2016).
Last update: Fri Apr 19 01:04:21 CEST 2024