Real-time forecasts of Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) Events


Real-time forecast of >10 MeV MeV SEP events of UMASEP-10 version 2.0.


In the NASA / iSWA website you may consult the real-time UMASEP version 3.0's predictions of >10 MeV  >30 MeV >50 MeV >100 MeV  SEP events and GLE events. The National Observatory of Athens also presents the UMASEP predictions of GLE events. The iSWA website also presents the UMASEP's predictions of the SEP fluence for the energy range 15-140 MeV. For more information, please consult the UMASEP Metadata Registry in the NASA/CCMC website.


Summary of the UMASEP scheme:

The UMASEP scheme was introduced by Núñez (2011). In general, the UMASEP scheme makes use of the lag-correlation of solar electromagnetic flux with the particle flux at near-earth. If the correlation is high, the model infers that there is a magnetic connection through which particles are arriving. If, additionally, the intensity of the flux of the associated solar event is also high, then the UMASEP tools predict the occurrence, the peak intensity and fluence of SEP events in several ranges of enegies (see above). These tools analyzes soft X-ray, differential and integral proton flux data in order to recognize precursors of different proton flux situations: well-connected SEP events, poorly-connected SEP events, and "all-clear" situations.

The last version (vers 3.0) of the UMASEP-10 has a new component that does not analize proton fluxes. It uses machine learning techniques to analyze solar data only. Currently, this component processes flare and radio burst data from the NOAA/SWPC Event Report to make predictions of the occurrence and the peak intensity of >10 MeV SEP events. These predictions are issued by the tool only if no well-connected or poorly-connected event is expected.

The figures below show forecast images generated by UMASEP after processing historical data: the first image at the left shows a forecast of an "all-clear" situation, indicated with a blue band, for December 13, 2001 (note that a very intense X5 flare occurred before the forecast); the second image shows a forecast of a well-connected SEP event (September 24, 2001); and, the image at the right shows a forecast of a poorly-connected SEP event (December 6, 2006).




- Núñez, M (2022), Evaluation of the UMASEP-10 Version 2 Tool for Predicting All >10 MeV SEP Events of Solar Cycles 22, 23 and 24, Universe, 13, doi:10.1002/2015SW001256.
- Núñez, M (2015), Real-time prediction of the occurrence and intensity of the first hours of > 100 MeV solar energetic proton events, Space Weather, 8(1), 35, doi: 10.3390/universe8010035.
- Núñez, M. (2011), Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV), Space Weather, 9, S07003, doi:10.1029/2010SW000640.
- Núñez, M., P. J. Reyes-Santiago, O. E. Malandraki (2017), Real-time prediction of the occurrence of GLE events, Space Weather, 15, 7, pp 861-873, doi: 10.1002/2017SW001605.



  Prof. Dr. Marlon Núñez  (Universidad de Málaga, Spain)

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