Real-time forecasting of Solar Energetic Proton Events

	Forecasting Solar Energetic Proton Events
	The UMA SEP forecaster automatically predicts SEPs in real time. For more information about its performance with historical data (Cycles 22 and 23) see here. For more information about this panel see below.

Note: The upper time series shows the recent Integral Proton Flux (E>10 MeV), as well as the predicted flux for the next hours. The middle time series shows the current solar activity in terms of X-rays. The lower time series shows the estimated magnetic connection. The following figures below illustrate the possible escenarios and how the SEP forecaster shows them.

Fig 1. Prediction of a quiet scenario in terms of well-connected proton flux (E>10MeV). No well-connected SEP event is expected

Fig 2. Prediction of a SEP event. It graphically shows the expected onset and peak intensity of the prompt component (first hours) of the SEP. This figure shows the prediction of a well-connected event.

The warning level is shown at the top of the highlighted area, at the right of the forecast panel (see above):

Warning level=0 means that a SEP event is not expected.
Warning level=1 means that a high magnetic connectivity has been detected. It also means that a well-connected SEP event is not expected.
Warning level=2 means that an integral proton flux enhancement is expected. It also means that a SEP event is not expected.
Warning level=3 means that a SEP event is expected. The details are shown graphically and summarized below the highlighted area.
Warning level=4 means that a SEP event is ocurring.

Prepared by the University of Málaga (Spain).

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Marlon Núñez

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