Real-time forecasting of Solar Energetic Proton Events

Real-time forecasting of Solar Energetic Proton Events (E> 10 MeV)

The UMASEP forecaster automatically predicts Solar Energetic Proton (SEP) events in real time. The above image is the graphical output of UMASEP. The upper time series shows the recent Integral Proton Flux (E>10 MeV), as well as the predicted flux for the next hours. The middle time series shows the current solar activity in terms of X-rays. The lower time series shows the estimated magnetic connection. The following figures below illustrate the possible escenarios and how the SEP forecaster shows them.

UMASEP's real-time forecasts may also be consulted through the NASA's space weather system, called iSWA (see here). iSWA periocally stores the above forecast images several times per hour, therefore historic UMASEP forecasts (since January, 2010) may be consulted there. UMASEP forecasts may also be consulted in real-time in the European Space Weather Portal (see here). For more information about UMASEP, see [Núñez, M. 2011]. A summary of the performance of this forecaster with historical data (Cycles 22 and 23) is presented here.

Possible graphical outputs of UMASEP:
UMASEP predicts three different proton flux situations: well-connected SEP events, poorly-connected SEP events, and "all-clear" situations ("quiet scenario"). Figures 1 shows the "all-clear" situation predicted by UMASEP after processing X-ray and proton flux data of December 13, 2001 (note that a X5 flare occurred five hours before the forecast). Figure 2 shows the forecast of a well-connected SEP event (September 24, 2001). Figure 3 shows the forecast of a poorly-connected SEP event (December 6, 2006).

Reference:

Núñez, M. (2011), Predicting solar energetic proton events (E > 10 MeV), Space Weather, 9, S07003, doi:10.1029/2010SW000640. Preprint (PDF)

Contact:

Prof. Dr. Marlon Núñez (Universidad de Málaga, Spain)